During the May 1st holiday period, the country received a total of 115 million domestic tourists and accumulated a domestic tourism income of 47.56 billion yuan. Compared with last year, the tourism market has basically recovered by nearly 50% over the same period.

The "May Day" small long holiday just passed is the first long holiday ushered in after the normalization of China's epidemic prevention and control. Are the "suffocating" people taking advantage of the holiday to rekindle their enthusiasm for consumption? This is what Zhu Di, an associate researcher of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and an expert on middle-income groups and consumption patterns, is most concerned about.

At 0:00 on April 30, Beijing announced that it would adjust the emergency response level of major public health emergencies from first-level response to second-level response. The volume of train tickets and air tickets entering and leaving Beijing immediately doubled. The Palace Museum, which has closed since January 25, has just announced its reopening on May 1. Within two hours, all the 25,000 tickets during the "May Day" period were sold out.

At 8pm on May 4th, Shanghai's "May 5th Shopping Festival" kicked off. After 4 minutes, the consumption payment in Shanghai exceeded 100 million yuan and reached 15.68 billion yuan in 24 hours.

These data seem to be announcing that the consumer boom that people are expecting has arrived. But Judy is more willing to use "compensatory consumption" to describe the consumption release during the "May Day". "People's demand for consumption is not necessarily retaliatory. Compensation is more accurate. It is itself a normal domestic demand for consumption, only because it is forced to shut down during the epidemic."

According to Judy, under the strict control policy implemented due to the epidemic situation, some consumption that requires on-site experience and service is bound to be impossible, "Consumption needs such as travel and catering are suppressed, and now only in one The normal category is released and compensated. The so-called retaliatory consumption means that the consumption power and consumption demand of residents will increase exponentially. "

She believes that in the post-epidemic era, the release of consumer demand guided by policies will be a good opportunity to stimulate domestic demand and drive the economic recovery as soon as possible, thus also bringing a long-lost consumption boom. However, how long this boom can last and whether consumer demand can continue to rise will depend on whether policies continue to stimulate consumption in a timely and effective manner.

"May 5th Shopping Festival", consumption spree

Under the slogan of "Thousands of Stores, Mobilization of the City" issued by the "May 5th Shopping Festival" in Shanghai, Judy noted that emerging consumption, leisure consumption, automobile consumption, information consumption and home improvement consumption are the highlights of this consumption festival.

Affected by the epidemic, the catering industry is undoubtedly the most impacted, while domestic auto production has directly decreased by 1.7 million units. Data shows that China's auto production fell by 10% in the first quarter.

Judy found that the types of consumers most concerned about catering, shopping malls and car consumption are the most promotional activities at the “May 5th Shopping Festival” in Shanghai. Now that there are policy stimuli and merchant discounts, people's enthusiasm for consumption is indeed rising. "

This is a shopping carnival that focuses on "consumption infrastructure." Based on the data released by major platforms, during the May 1st period, daily consumption such as catering and entertainment showed a big rebound.

On May 5, many Shanghai Hema Xiansheng stores were sold out at 10 am.

At 8pm on May 5th, Pinduoduo launched 25 Cadillac XT5 Deluxe Edition, Volkswagen Tiguan, Volkswagen Touran and other 25 SAIC-branded models at a "50% discount" price, a total of 55 popular "50% discount" models were launched Second light. Pinduoduo data shows that the platform has issued more than 2.5 billion yuan in cash and coupons from 0:00 on May 1 to 4:00 on May 5th. Through the use of online and offline consumer coupons and subsidized merchandise sold, Pinduoduo has accumulatively driven Shanghai offline physical sales and Shanghai brand online sales totaling more than 3.2 billion yuan.

Meituan Dianping invested 1.2 billion yuan to help Shanghai's consumption recovery. After the "May Day", Meituan Dianping released the "Shanghai May Five Emerging Consumption Power" big data, and Shanghai's consumer orders for entertainment rose by 249%, ranking first in the country. During the "May Day" period, Shanghai's consumption orders for food, drink and entertainment ranked second in the country, and young people became the backbone of consumption. Shanghai ’s post-90s per capita spending on fun during the “May Day” period was 212 yuan, and the post-00 per capita spending on fun was 174 yuan, 56% higher than the national average post-00 consumption level, and novelty experiences such as secret rooms, game halls, and trampolines became the most preferred after 00 Fun games, karting, archery, rock climbing and other new adventure-stimulating formats all ushered in a big explosion during the May Day.

This is a carnival that unites Pinduoduo, Tencent, JD.com, Hema, Tesla, L'Oreal, SAIC, Meituan Dianping, Bailian Group, Guangming Group and other e-commerce platforms, commercial enterprises, brand enterprises and terminal products. It is "May Day", and will continue to many festivals such as Children's Day and Dragon Boat Festival. It will continue to stimulate consumption with more than 30 key activities.

Looking back on the outbreak of SARS in 2003, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China also fell steeply, but in the third quarter after the epidemic, GDP growth reached 10%, Chinese residents' consumption increased rapidly in the third quarter, and the economic operation also returned to normal track.

"But looking at it today, the experience after SARS may not be copied. It is estimated with caution, that the recovery of consumption may be relatively slow." Judi said.

Tourism consumption still needs time to recover

Photographer Yu Feng specifically visited Beijing suburbs and scenic spots during the "May Day", but he found that the Palace Museum did not imagine the crowded scene in the imagination. Badaling Great Wall, Xiangshan Park, Nanluogu Alley and other popular attractions also had a flow of people. Not so big, some remote villages in Mentougou, Beijing suburbs, still have closed villages, and tourists cannot enter.

During the "May Day" period when the control is still not loose, Beijing's parks and scenic spots all implement passenger flow control. Some scenic spots control the instantaneous maximum passenger flow at 30%. Policies such as limited opening and time-scheduled reservations also allow "May Day". During this period, there is no possibility of tourist congestion, and even many scenic spots in Beijing have not reached the current limit.

Tourism is still in a difficult recovery period, Yu Feng believes that this is related to the “May Day” health travel tips issued by the Beijing Center for Disease Control. According to the current epidemic situation and uncertain factors, people still choose short-distance trips more cautiously and avoid crowds. Alibaba's quark search data shows that the search volume for "May Day" peripheral travel increased by 120% this year, and the Ctrip car rental business increased by 10% year-on-year during the "May Day" period.

According to incomplete statistics, from April 30 to May 4, at least 68 cities across the country announced or launched a new round of consumer voucher issuance, superimposing previously issued and still in use period of consumer vouchers, only "May 1" holiday The amount of consumer vouchers available nationwide amounts to billions of yuan.

On April 30, Beijing issued a number of consumer promotion measures to carry out 100 consumer promotion activities throughout the city. The flow of people in Chaoyang Joy City and Blue Harbor has been restored, but some shopping malls are still deserted.

According to data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the "May 1st" long holiday period, the country received a total of 115 million domestic tourists, and accumulated domestic tourism revenue of 47.56 billion yuan. Compared with last year, on the premise of normalization of the epidemic situation, the tourism market has basically recovered by nearly 50% over the same period.

"At present, after the epidemic, people's catering consumption recovers the fastest. The catering includes not only a gourmet experience, but also a collection of needs for people to meet, socialize, and solve working meals. In contrast, the recovery of tourism consumption is It's a lot slower. "Judy believes that people will gradually start from surrounding tours, and then gradually expand to longer distance travel. It takes not only time but also confidence to fully recover.